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Against The Top Down Approach To Picking Stocks

The Four Steps To Financial Freedom - Sean Toh
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Step1 - The road to financial freedom is to have great health so that you are in good shape to learn.

 

Step 2 - An open mindset to start learning and practicing what you have learned.
Step 3 - Investing your time in your financial & health education so that you are in control of your life to create wealth to enjoy a better life.

 

Step 4 - Enjoy the wealth that you have created because you have been taking care of your health.

 


4 Steps To Financial Freedom (2007 edition) Sean Toh

4 Steps To Financial Freedom reveals the philosophies and secrets of Sean Toh's financial journey in creating wealth for himself. Here you will learn proven principles and timeless wealth building techniques, as well as simple, practical, and proven financial strategies used by thousands of people to create a life of abundance. By starting to practice these four steps, you will change you life. Make the decision now to take the necessary actions to embark on this journey of creating wealth for yourself.

The 4 Steps to Financial Freedom consist of:

  • Step 1 - Get Healthy and Strive for Great Health
  • Step 2 - Adopt an Open Mindset to Learn
  • Step 3 - Invest Your Time in Financial and Health Education
  • Step 4 - Enjoy the Wealth that You Have Created

You will also learn why financial education is directly linked to your financial destiny. Sean Toh shows you how to get financial education and how you can teach yourself to create and preserve your wealth. He explains the different types of incomes and how you can design a simple model for yourself to take action on so that you can start to see some financial success.

Embark on your financial education today to reach your financial destiny faster!

More information about Sean Toh: www.4stepsfinancialfreedom.com

 

Can be ordered or purchased from Amazon!


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  If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securities. If you think logically about this approach for a moment, you will recognize how truly foolish it is.

A stocks earnings yield is the inverse of its P/E ratio. So, a stock with a P/E ratio of 25 has an earnings yield of 4%, while a stock with a P/E ratio of 8 has an earnings yield of 12.5%. In this way, a low P/E stock is comparable to a high yield bond.

Now, if these low P/E stocks had very unstable earnings or carried a great deal of debt, the spread between the long bond yield and the earnings yield of these stocks might be justified. However, many low P/E stocks actually have more stable earnings than their high multiple kin. Some do employ a great deal of debt. Still, within recent memory, one could find a stock with an earnings yield of 8 12%, a dividend yield of 3- 5%, and literally no debt, despite some of the lowest bond yields in half a century. This situation could only come about if investors shopped for their bonds without also considering stocks. This makes about as much sense as shopping for a van without also considering a car or truck.

All investments are ultimately cash to cash operations. As such, they should be judged by a single measure: the discounted value of their future cash flows. For this reason, a top down approach to investing is nonsensical. Starting your search by first deciding upon the form of security or the industry is like a general manager deciding upon a left handed or right handed pitcher before evaluating each individual player. In both cases, the choice is not merely hasty; its false. Even if pitching left handed is inherently more effective, the general manager is not comparing apples and oranges; hes comparing pitchers. Whatever inherent advantage or disadvantage exists in a pitchers handedness can be reduced to an ultimate value (e.g., run value). For this reason, a pitchers handedness is merely one factor (among many) to be considered, not a binding choice to be made. The same is true of the form of security. It is neither more necessary nor more logical for an investor to prefer all bonds over all stocks (or all retailers over all banks) than it is for a general manager to prefer all lefties over all righties. You needn't determine whether stocks or bonds are attractive; you need only determine whether a particular stock or bond is attractive. Likewise, you needn't determine whether the market is undervalued or overvalued; you need only determine that a particular stock is undervalued.

Clearly, the most prudent approach to investing is to evaluate each individual security in relation to all others, and only to consider the form of security insofar as it affects each individual evaluation. A top down approach to investing is an unnecessary hindrance. Some very smart investors have imposed it upon themselves and overcome it; but, there is no need for you to do the same.

By Geoff Gannon

Geoff Gannon writes a daily value investing blog and produces a twice weekly (half hour) value investing podcast at: http://www.gannononinvesting.com

 

 

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